The Clairvoyant Post: Pt 1
When people ask what will happen next in Chile, the best response one can give is a distribution of outcomes with their associated probabilities. Because I am a masochist, I will begin with the worst-case scenario. I cannot really quantify the probability of this event, but it increases with each negative external shock such as the coronavirus and the expected resulting recession. I put it in the form of a diary to make it easier to write and more accessible to read. A simple list would have been too boring to write/read. I may have missed a lot of details and nuances, this is merely a rough outline of things. Hopefully the more upbeat scenario will come soon. Santiago, October 25, 2021 Today was quiet, but canal 13 had a discussion on the upcoming elections. It felt like an empty discussion. Everyone knows that what happened during the plebiscite in April 2020 is bound to happen again. The results of the plebiscite were null and void because even the armed forces could not gu...