Tetra Ciklina

( English Version ) “ El verdadero terror es levantarse una mañana y descubrir que tus compañeros de colegio están gobernando el país”.  Kurt Vonnegut   Últimamente, he estado leyendo sobre la " Sobreproducción de la Élite ", una hipótesis propuesta hace algunos años por Peter Turchin. La idea es relativamente sencilla, aunque un tanto difícil de probar empíricamente: la educación superior promete la pertenencia a la élite de un país (intelectual, económica, política). Cuando el ingreso de las personas a este nivel de educación es bajo, la mayoría de los ciudadanos no aspira a ser miembros de la élite, independientemente de la forma con que ello se mida.  Por otro lado, a medida que aumenta el ingreso a la educación superior, también lo hace el número de aspirantes que quieren ser parte de dicha élite.  Además, y debido a que los cupos en ésta son limitados [1] , aquellos que inevitablemente no serán admitidos en ella, se rebelarán. Dado que, y por definición, la éli...

 ( Versión en Español )   “True terror is to wake up one morning and discover that your high school class is running the country.” Kurt Vonnegut       Lately, I have been reading about the “ Elite Overproduction ” hypothesis, put forward by Peter Turchin a few years ago. The idea is relatively straightforward, if a bit difficult to prove empirically; membership in a country’s elite (intellectual, moneyed, political) is the promise of higher education. When enrollment is low, the majority of citizens do not aspire to be members of the elite, however you measure it. As enrollment increases, so does the number of aspirants. Because the number of spots in the elite is limited [1] , those who will inevitably fail to be admitted into the elite, will revolt. Since, by definition, the elite is a very small proportion of the population (around 1%), the number of the disaffected will be relatively large. Some intra-elite competition is good, because it selects the best ca...

There exists a version of Goodwin’s law in Chile, which I have noticed in the national press and even in day to day conversations. The longer the conversation proceeds, and the more political it gets, someone will invariably invoke Argentina or Venezuela to argue against your point. This is done in the same manner and for the same reason employed by religious people when they bring god into an argument; it is a blunt force instrument to attempt to destroy the other side without really engaging with the argument itself.  For example, when you argue that the level of redistribution is low for a country with Chile’s GDP per capita, invariably you will be faced with having to respond to the Argentina/Venezuela accusation. This is not to say that Chilean politics, such as they are, entirely exclude the possibility of the Argentina/Venezuela outcome. It surely is possible. However, not all measures to reduce inequality and respond to the issues that Chile faces are a step in tha...

During the past year I have consistently read the columns of Daniel Matamala, a prominent Chilean columnist. I chose to read him because he is often quoted in the press and social media and seems to be the kind of columnist that is respected by a large fraction of the Chilean public. His columns almost always become a hot topic on Sundays. I also think it is a useful exercise to understand the general mood of a country by the quality of its most prominent op-eds in the same way that reading Edward Luce at FT or Krugman/Brooks at NYT give you a general idea of where the general discussion in the UK/US is going. After nearly a year of reading Matamala though, I still don’t really understand why he is such a prominent voice of the left. His columns often leave me confused as to his main point, even though he often puts it right in the title. In fact, his columns are too often a populist’s wet dream, the lamentations of a man of the people, demanding answers to his overly simplistic ...